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Waiting for the 'Trump Effect' on the World Order

Oleh: Teguh Anantawikrama, Wakil Ketua Umum Bidang Teknologi Transfer dan Digital KADIN

Waiting for the 'Trump Effect' on the World Order Kredit Foto: Istimewa
Warta Ekonomi, Jakarta -

The world has always been in flux, with shifts in political power and economic influence reshaping the global order. However, the impact of Donald Trump’s presidency on international relations and global governance has left an indelible mark, and the reverberations of his policies continue to be felt. As we await his potential influence in the near future, it’s critical to analyze how the “Trump effect” may redefine the global landscape.

The Legacy of Trump’s First Presidency

Donald Trump’s presidency disrupted traditional norms of diplomacy, particularly in the following areas:

1. Trade Wars and Economic Shifts

Trump’s administration initiated an aggressive trade war with China, resulting in global supply chain realignments. Countries like Vietnam and Indonesia benefited as companies sought alternatives to avoid tariffs. However, these tensions also underscored vulnerabilities in globalization and the interdependence of economies.

2. Redefining Alliances

Under Trump, the United States shifted its approach to long-standing alliances, such as NATO, while strengthening ties with nations like India and Japan through the Quad Alliance. This recalibration left traditional allies questioning the U.S.’s commitment to multilateralism.

3. America First Doctrine

By prioritizing domestic interests, Trump challenged global initiatives like the Paris Climate Agreement and emphasized national sovereignty over international cooperation. This approach has inspired other nations to adopt similar stances, further fragmenting global governance.

Anticipating a New “Trump Era”

If Trump returns to a prominent role on the world stage, we can expect a continuation—or escalation—of certain policies that could reshape the global order:

1. Trade and Economic Realignments

Trump’s skepticism of multilateral trade agreements and preference for bilateral deals could deepen the fragmentation of global trade. Countries like Indonesia and India, as rising economic powers, may see opportunities to strengthen their bilateral ties with the U.S. while also navigating the complexities of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

2. Focus on the Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific will remain a strategic focal point. Trump’s earlier emphasis on countering China’s influence in the region through partnerships like the Quad and expanded naval presence may lead to increased militarization and strategic competition. Indonesia, with its critical geographic position, will likely be a key player in balancing these dynamics.

3. Challenges to Multilateralism

A renewed “America First” policy could further undermine global institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. This could push countries in the Global South, including Indonesia, to advocate for reforms in multilateral platforms, ensuring their voices are heard in a more fragmented global order.

Global Reactions to a Polarized America

The potential return of Trump could intensify global polarization. On one hand, countries that align with Trump’s nationalist policies may seek stronger ties with the U.S., while others may double down on regional cooperation to counterbalance his policies.

Indonesia’s Role in the Shifting Order

Indonesia’s position as a middle power offers both challenges and opportunities:

  • Economic Diplomacy: Indonesia can leverage its growing influence in platforms like BRICS and ASEAN to mediate between global powers and advocate for equitable economic policies.
  • Strategic Neutrality: As tensions rise between the U.S. and China, Indonesia can adopt a neutral stance, positioning itself as a mediator in regional disputes while pursuing its own economic and security interests.
  • Climate and Sustainability Leadership: With global attention on climate change, Indonesia has the opportunity to take a leadership role in driving sustainable policies, particularly in forestry and renewable energy, regardless of U.S. participation in global agreements.

The World in Transition

The “Trump effect” represents more than just a shift in U.S. policy—it is a symptom of larger global changes. The rise of populism, the recalibration of alliances, and the fragmentation of multilateralism signal a world in transition.

As we await the potential return of Trump’s influence, nations must prepare to navigate an increasingly complex global landscape. For Indonesia, this means staying adaptive, strengthening regional cooperation, and asserting its role as a key player in shaping a new world order.

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Editor: Amry Nur Hidayat

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