When the Skies Over the Middle East Turn Red: It Is Time for Indonesia to Step Forward as a Guardian of Peace

The skies never lie.

The image above illustrates the dense air traffic across the Middle East, flight corridors that serve as the lifelines of global trade, human mobility, and economic stability. When tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, what is disrupted is not merely diplomacy. What is endangered is the very artery of globalization itself.

The collapse of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is not simply a bilateral setback. It is a stark warning for an increasingly fragile international system.

As a nation guided by an independent and active foreign policy, Indonesia cannot afford to be a bystander.

Escalation Is Never Local

Every conflict in the Middle East inevitably carries global consequences. The region is a central hub of the world’s energy supply. Even limited instability can:

• Drive up crude oil prices
• Trigger energy inflation
• Disrupt global supply chains
• Shake international financial markets

Indonesia, as a developing economy with high energy consumption and deep global economic integration, is not immune. Currency stability, logistics costs, and household purchasing power can be affected within days.

The concentration of aircraft in the region is more than a symbol of mobility, it reflects how interconnected our world has become. When one region trembles, the ripple effects are felt everywhere.

Diplomacy as Moral Strength

The official statement of the Government of Indonesia, urging restraint and prioritizing dialogue, reflects a principled and dignified position. More importantly, the readiness of the President of the Republic of Indonesia to facilitate dialogue, and even to travel to Tehran should both parties agree,  signals Indonesia’s willingness to play a constructive role.

Indonesia holds both moral and strategic legitimacy:

1. The world’s largest Muslim-majority nation
2. The third-largest democracy globally
3. An active participant in multilateral forums
4. A country without a colonial legacy in the region

These attributes provide Indonesia with credibility as a bridge-builder, not as a power bloc, but as a stabilizing force.

The Moment for a Middle Power

Today’s world is marked by geopolitical fragmentation. In such an environment, the role of middle powers becomes increasingly vital. Indonesia possesses significant potential to serve as a bridge between the West and the Muslim world, between major powers and developing nations.

A mediation initiative is not merely diplomatic maneuvering; it represents global moral leadership.

We must demonstrate that strength is not measured solely by military capability, but by the ability to safeguard peace.

Implications for Indonesia

We must prepare for several potential scenarios:

1. Energy price spikes

Ensuring adequate reserves and adaptive fiscal policy will be crucial.

2. Pressure on the currency and financial markets

Strong coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities will be essential.

3. Risks to Indonesian citizens in affected areas

The protection of nationals must remain a top priority.

Global stability is not a distant issue. It affects fuel prices, food costs, and the production expenses of Indonesian MSMEs at home.

Indonesia Must Be Firm and Proactive

Issuing normative statements alone is not enough. Concrete steps are necessary:

• Activating shuttle diplomacy
• Building coalitions among non-aligned nations
• Leveraging multilateral forums to push for de-escalation

History shows that Indonesia has played meaningful roles in global diplomacy before. That tradition must now be strengthened and revitalized.

When the skies over the Middle East turn red with tension, Indonesia must stand as a calming light.

Peace is not an idealistic choice. It is a strategic necessity.

And in an increasingly uncertain world, Indonesia’s moral leadership has never been more relevant.