Indonesia as a Civilizational Middle Power in a Fragmenting World

The global order as we have known it is no longer intact. Economic fragmentation, geopolitical rivalry, and civilizational tension are reshaping international relations in ways that feel unprecedented, yet history reminds us that such transitions are rarely peaceful or orderly.

Empires rise, peak, and decline. What follows is always a period of uncertainty in which the actions of great powers can alter global norms with lasting consequences.

Recent developments in the Western Hemisphere, where The United States has asserted unprecedented control over Venezuela’s political leadership and strategic resources, have underscored a sobering reality: the post-war assumptions of sovereignty, restraint, and predictability are weakening.

When great powers act unilaterally, the shockwaves are felt far beyond the immediate theater.

The world is entering a phase in which power, not principle, increasingly defines outcomes. In such moments, the role of middle powers becomes critical.

Indonesia’s Strategic Moment

Indonesia today stands at a strategic crossroads. We are not a great power, nor should we aspire to become one in the traditional sense.

Our comparative advantage lies elsewhere in legitimacy, continuity, and civilizational depth. Indonesia’s role in the emerging order is best understood as that of a civilizational middle power.

A civilizational middle power does not seek dominance or ideological expansion. It derives influence from internal cohesion, cultural confidence, and the capacity to engage across divides without being absorbed by them.

Indonesia’s plural identity, shaped by Nusantara traditions, Islamic civilization, Hindu-Buddhist heritage, and modern constitutional governance, has produced a society that is resilient, adaptive, and fundamentally inclusive.

In a world increasingly fractured along lines of identity and power, this pluralism is not a vulnerability. It is strategic capital.

Pancasila and Leadership in the Global South

Under the leadership of Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia has articulated a foreign-policy posture that resonates strongly with the Global South and fellow middle-power countries: one rooted in strategic autonomy, mutual respect, and national dignity.

President Prabowo’s engagement with developing nations reflects a growing consensus among middle powers that stability, sovereignty, and development cannot be outsourced to great-power rivalry.

His emphasis on food security, defense self-reliance, and equitable economic cooperation speaks directly to the concerns of countries navigating the same structural pressures Indonesia faces, volatile capital flows, supply-chain fragmentation, and geopolitical polarization.

This is not leadership through rhetoric, but through shared experience. Indonesia does not lecture the Global South; it understands it.

A Bridge, Not a Proxy

Indonesia’s diplomatic posture under President Prabowo reinforces a long-standing principle: we are aligned with no bloc, but engaged with all.

We cooperate with Western economies without abandoning the priorities of the Global South. We engage China pragmatically while safeguarding national interests.

We maintain credibility within the Islamic world without exporting ideology.

In an era when rigid alliances increase exposure to geopolitical shocks, Indonesia’s flexible engagement offers an alternative model, one increasingly attractive to other middle powers seeking room to maneuver.

Civilizational Power Must Be Lived

Civilizational influence cannot be asserted by force. It must be demonstrated through economic behavior, institutional strength, and social cohesion.

Tourism, the creative economy, and MSMEs are therefore not peripheral sectors; they are expressions of Indonesia’s civilizational identity. Development that respects culture and community becomes a form of diplomacy.

Indonesia should not export commodities stripped of meaning. We should export value, trust, and long-term partnership.

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The Responsibility of the Moment

Being a civilizational middle power carries responsibility. Internal cohesion must be protected. Inequality, institutional erosion, and polarization are strategic risks, not merely domestic issues.

History shows that civilizations do not fall to external pressure until they weaken from within.

If Indonesia can consolidate its internal strength while continuing to act as a bridge among nations, particularly within the Global South and the community of middle powers, we will not only endure this period of global transition. We will help shape the norms that follow.

In a world where power is once again exercised bluntly, Indonesia’s steady leadership, grounded in civilization rather than coercion, may prove to be its most valuable contribution to the international order.