A Scenario Planning Approach to Lead Manufacturing Industry in Challenging Situation
Kredit Foto: Indo Intertex-Inatex
| Scenario | Short term (0-2 yeras) | Mid Term (2-5 years) | Long term (> 5 years) |
| Downsizing the Business |
- Cost optimization strategy - Starting reducing the employee and restructuring the debt - Develop new geographic market where demand is still high |
- Define new geographical market and start to move asset gradually - Develop new product and diversify the product - Downsizing incountry operation. |
- Establish new business in new geographical - Launch new product with complete solutions - Closing the operation in the country that has no demand (there is no market) |
| New Normal – Low Ball strategy |
- Maintain high backlog to keep high capacity utilization by reducing operating margin - High operating efficiency thru applying technology to optimize the cost - Develop Scenario for BOO and BOT to provide total solution for clients and keep margin level - Implement strict health procedure and swift employee benefit to health care plan |
- Slowly increase margin to new acceptance level - Maintain operating efficiency - Start new pilot project for BOO and BOT. - Launch new optimization technology for production - Start partnership with artificial intelligence company to auto monitoring health all employee. |
- Keep margin level and maintain backlogs - Implement new automation in production line - Implement artificial intelligence to monitor operation and production as well as employee health condition - BOO and BOT scheme will drive 50% or revenue. |
| Extend the Runway |
- Reducing margin to create strong backlogs. - Create leasing method to create new demand. - Debt restructure and develop financial institution company - Cost optimization strategy |
- Using existing optimization technology to increase plant productivity - Dump price to increase incountry demand. - Continue with leasing method |
- Slowly increase price since demand expected higher. If not, go to downsizing business scenario - Start direct selling and stop leasing gradually to get cash. - Implement advance technology for production. Making new investment for new product development. |
| Growth Strategy: Invest and Expansion |
- Invest for new production line to capture market demand - Developing to expand for nearest geographical - Developing artificial intelligence combine with advance optimization production technology to increase competitiveness |
-Continue invest to geographical area - Penetrate to Asia pacific market -Start new factory in south east Asia pacific - Offering BOO and BOT model for new market. - Established optimization and artificial intelligence for production - Develop new product for new market segment |
-Acquiring competitor to become leader in Asia Pacific regions -Continue implement BOO and BOT for green market - For brown market, established new product that improving company competitive advantage - Established artificial intelligence in all sectors such as: SCM, Project and Finance |
Scenario planning helping the management to define their strategy to face this uncertainty situation. The Company has to swift from scenario to other scenario after the management assess the situation. The scenario planning itself is not a fix strategy but a sustainable process of creative thinking.
Baca Juga: Industri Manufaktur Indonesia di Titik Nadir
Some researcher argue the effectiveness of the creative thinking in systematic business environment. In my opinion, since the definition of the strategy is "what we do differently compare to the competitors", thus the creative thinking is still the most effective way to determine the strategy.
The above, is the general example of the scenario planning, therefore the management shall make it more details on the key performance index (KPI) that has to be achieved by the company. The management also need to examine that if all the implemented strategies giving the results as expected, since this is a continuous process.
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Editor: Puri Mei Setyaningrum
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